Blackwall and Silvertown tunnels revenue projection calculation
Request ID: FOI-3492-2324 Date published: 19 February 2024
You asked
Please provide the full calculation used to reach the £123m revenue projection figure referenced here: https://www.london.gov.uk/who-we-are/what-london-assembly-does/questions-mayor/find-an-answer/blackwall-and-silvertown-tunnels-income
We answered
Our Ref: FOI-3492-2324 Thank you for your request received on 4 January 2024 asking for information about the projected revenue from the Blackwall and Silvertown tunnels. Your request has been considered in accordance with the requirements of the Freedom of Information (FOI) Act and our information access policy. I can confirm that we do hold the information you require. Firstly, it is important to note the user charges associated with the Silvertown and Blackwall tunnels have not yet been set and we cannot therefore provide a forecast of projected revenue for the final charges, as these will not be confirmed until closer to scheme opening. The revenue projections referenced are based on the indicative charges set out in the Development Consent Order (DCO) application from 2016. The estimated revenue of £123m is for both charge income and income from penalties issued for non-payment of the charge, and is calculated based on the following;
An assessment of hourly flows expected at scheme opening, and a conversion of that to annual traffic flows, underpinned by specialist traffic modelling;
These flows are converted to chargeable crossings which are then multiplied by the indicative charge prices from the DCO, adjusted for inflation;
We have estimated the level of non-payment based on historical behaviours. We expect around 15 per cent of drivers to not pay the charge in the first year and this would generate £54m of net revenue from penalties. To raise awareness of the proposed road user charges, we have developed an expansive proposal for customer communications and marketing to support the tunnel opening in 2025. It should also be noted that we expect penalties for non-payment of the charge to decrease over time, in line with historical behaviours.
From those drivers who do pay the correct charge, the estimated charge revenue is £69m. The combined total revenue projection is therefore £123m.
The purpose of introducing a user charge for the Silvertown and Blackwall tunnels is to manage traffic effectively, and deliver the expected environmental and economic benefits. It was first proposed in 2012 and forms part of the planning consent for the Silvertown Tunnel and was formally approved by the Secretary of State for Transport in 2018. The planning consent requires Transport for London (TfL) to manage traffic levels and environmental impact and introducing these charges has been a long-standing way to comply with the planning requirements. The level of user charge has not yet been agreed, and TfL is working on proposals for a set of discounts, including for people on low income in the local area. These will be confirmed closer to the tunnel opening date in 2025. If this is not the information you are looking for please do not hesitate to contact me. Please see the attached information sheet for details of your right to appeal. Yours sincerely Gemma Jacob Senior FOI Case Officer FOI Case Management Team General Counsel Transport for London
