Request ID: FOI-2845-2223 Date published: 16 February 2023
You asked
The mayor has repeatedly claimed that 4000 deaths per year are caused by air pollution in London, as a justification for the ULEZ expansion. Please could you provide the evidence for this figure. To further explore this claim, please could you tell me how many people per year who have died in London have had air pollution listed as a cause of death in the last 10 years.
Furthermore, using the same methodology used to arrive at the 4000 figure, has TFL calculated how many deaths per year will be prevented by the ULEZ expansion and if so, how many is this? Thank you.
We answered
TfL Ref: 2845-2223
Thank you for your request received by Transport for London (TfL) on 2 February 2023 asking for information about the ULEZ expansion.
Your request has been considered in accordance with the requirements of the Environmental Information Regulations and our information access policy. I can confirm that we hold the information you require. You asked: The mayor has repeatedly claimed that 4000 deaths per year are caused by air pollution in London, as a justification for the ULEZ expansion. Please could you provide the evidence for this figure. To further explore this claim, please could you tell me how many people per year who have died in London have had air pollution listed as a cause of death in the last 10 years. Furthermore, using the same methodology used to arrive at the 4000 figure, has TFL calculated how many deaths per year will be prevented by the ULEZ expansion and if so, how many is this?
The statistic relating to 4,000 deaths is taken from the following report: https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/london_health_burden_of_current_air_pollution_and_future_health_benefits_of_mayoral_air_quality_policies_january2020.pdf The report was commissioned by City Hall and undertaken by Imperial College and it is based on the report finding that ‘in 2019, in Greater London, the equivalent of between 3,600 to 4,100 deaths were estimated to be attributable to air pollution, considering that health effects exist even at very low levels. This calculation is for deaths from all causes including respiratory, lung cancer and cardiovascular deaths’. The report goes into detail as to how the statistic was calculated and provides a breakdown by borough in the summary tables.
The forecast number of deaths that would be prevented by London-wide ULEZ is set out in Chapter 6.2 of the Integrated Impact Assessment (IIA). You may also want to look at the Air Quality Health Impact Assessment (AQHIA) which can be found in Appendix A of the IIA. Link to the IIA is here: https://haveyoursay.tfl.gov.uk/15619/widgets/58629/documents/34537
If this is not the information you are looking for, or if you are unable to access it for any reason, please do not hesitate to contact me.
Please see the attached information sheet for details of your right to appeal as well as information on copyright and what to do if you would like to re-use any of the information we have disclosed.
Yours sincerely
Sara Thomas FOI Case Management Team General Counsel Transport for London
