Request ID: FOI-2638-2223 Date published: 13 February 2023
You asked
I would like to see the supporting workings and assumptions that support the the contention that making the pre 9 a.m. travel ban permanent would raise £40m in fares. I would like this on a spreadsheet plus supporting narrative.
I would also like to see how this new revenue stream fwill be monitored to see if it generates more or less revenue than predicted.
I would like to see the report that supported this move. I would like to see the drafts of reports on this issue written in the last 12 months.
I would also like to see any other relevant material
We answered
TfL Ref: FOI-2638-2223
Thank you for your request received by us on 18 January 2023 asking for information about revisions to the 60+ Oyster photocard. Your request has been considered in accordance with the requirements of the Freedom of Information Act and our information access policy. I can confirm that we hold the information you require. You asked:
I would like to see the supporting workings and assumptions that support the contention that making the pre 9 a.m. travel ban permanent would raise £40m in fares. I would like this on a spreadsheet plus supporting narrative.
I would also like to see how this new revenue stream will be monitored to see if it generates more or less revenue than predicted.
The £40m figure is an estimate based on pre-pandemic journey figures, with the average peak pay as you go (PAYG) fare per journey applied for the relevant mode. Please see the table below.
There is assumed to be no effect from capping as individuals would be very unlikely to reach the daily cap before 9am, and similarly purchase of a Travelcard or Bus Pass is unlikely to be worthwhile. An elasticity of 30% is applied to account for the reduction of travel due to the increase in the fare. While demand is currently slightly down on pre-pandemic, a combination of a continued recovery, fare increases and growth in the population aged over 60, mean that the £40m figure is still appropriate to a first approximation for the next few years.
FY 2019/20
Bus & Tram
TfL Rail modes
Overall
60+/FP journeys pre-9am (m)
22.3
9.2
31.5
Fare per PAYG peak journey
£1.28
£3.30
£1.87
Gross revenue foregone (£m)
£29
£30
£59
Elasticity effect
-30%
-30%
-30%
Net revenue foregone (£m)
£20
£21
£41
The revenue arising from this change cannot be monitored directly as journeys as it is not possible to distinguish between journeys made by over 60s before 9am from other fare payers in TfL’s systems. However, the revenue is incorporated into TfL’s overall fares income, which is constantly monitored as part of TfL’s budgeting and business planning activity.
I would like to see the report that supported this move. I would like to see the drafts of reports on this issue written in the last 12 months.
This change was one of the options set out in the New Revenue Sources report that TfL was required to submit to the Government in August 2021 as part of its February 2021 funding agreement. The relevant sections of that report have been published as Appendix B of the Mayoral Decision that confirmed the change, which you can access here: https://www.london.gov.uk/md3014-proposed-permanent-changes-free-travel-arrangements-older-londoners. The relevant consideration given to the impacts of the option, including impact on Equality and Inclusion, were also set out in that Mayoral Decision and its appendices.
If this is not the information you are looking for, or if you are unable to access it for any reason, please do not hesitate to contact me.
Please see the attached information sheet for details of your right to appeal as well as information on copyright and what to do if you would like to re-use any of the information we have disclosed.
Yours sincerely
Eva Hextall FOI Case Management Team General Counsel Transport for London
