What evidence supports the Elizabeth line breaking even in 2023/24?
Request ID: FOI-2345-2324 Date published: 27 October 2023
You asked
Hi there,
TfL have said "Transport for London (TfL) data also reveals that ridership on the (Elizabeth) line is currently above expected levels with around 600,000 journeys made each day, meaning the railway is one of the busiest in the UK and is on track to break even by the end of the 2023/24 financial year".
Could you answer:
1. What evidence is this based on?
2. Is the break even figure in relation to wider economic impact or simply revenue raised by the line?
3. If it's wider economic impact, what is this based on?
4. What is the value that is being considered as break even?
Thanks
We answered
TfL Ref: 2345-2324
Thank you for your request received by Transport for London (TfL) on 2 October 2023 asking for information about the Elizabeth line.
Your request has been considered in accordance with the requirements of the Freedom of Information Act and our information access policy. I can confirm that we hold the information you require. You asked about the following:
TfL have said "Transport for London (TfL) data also reveals that ridership on the (Elizabeth) line is currently above expected levels with around 600,000 journeys made each day, meaning the railway is one of the busiest in the UK and is on track to break even by the end of the 2023/24 financial year".
Could you answer:
1. What evidence is this based on? 2. Is the break even figure in relation to wider economic impact or simply revenue raised by the line? 3. If it's wider economic impact, what is this based on? 4. What is the value that is being considered as break even?
We can advise that the Elizabeth line is forecast to achieve operational breakeven in the financial year of 2023/24. This means that the revenue generated (mainly from fares) is forecast to cover the direct operating costs of running the railway, for example, concession costs paid to MTR Elizabeth line, maintenance and staff costs. However, after taking account of indirect costs, interest costs and capital renewals, the Elizabeth line will still show a financial deficit in 2023/24. We expect the surplus to grow in future years so it could start to contribute to indirect costs, interest costs and capital renewals. The profile will be confirmed in the 2024 TfL Business Plan, which will be published via the following link to our website: https://tfl.gov.uk/corporate/publications-and-reports/business-plan
As the 2024 Business Plan will be published in the new year, TfL is not obliged to supply you with this financial detail as it is subject to a statutory exemption to the right of access to information, under Section 22 of the Act. In this instance, the exemption has been applied as the information you have requested is intended for future publication.
This exemption is subject to a public interest test, which requires us to assess whether the public interest in applying the exemption outweighs the public interest in disclosure. In this instance, it is considered that the public interest favours the publication of this information, in context and according to the pre-determined schedule, rather than in response to your request, to ensure the information is provided accurately and in an accessible manner
If this is not the information you are looking for, or if you are unable to access it for any reason, please do not hesitate to contact me.
Please see the attached information sheet for details of your right to appeal as well as information on copyright and what to do if you would like to re-use any of the information we have disclosed.
Yours sincerely
Jasmine Howard FOI Case Officer FOI Case Management Team General Counsel Transport for London
