Request ID: FOI-1824-2324 Date published: 14 September 2023
You asked
I note TFL quote a saving of 4000 lives due to pollution in air as part of the justification of ULEZ expansion. Can I please see this analysis, and also the analysis for excess deaths you must have undertaken to give a net rather than gross figure caused by stress on workers who will be unable to continue their jobs due to travel costs.
We answered
Our Ref: FOI-1824-2324
Thank you for your request received on 29 August 2023 asking for information about the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) data.
Your request has been considered in accordance with the requirements of the Environmental Information Regulations and our information access policy. I can confirm that we do hold the information you require.
The statistic relating to 4,000 deaths is taken from the following report:
The report was commissioned by City Hall and undertaken by Imperial College and it is based on the report finding that ‘in 2019, in Greater London, the equivalent of between 3,600 to 4,100 deaths were estimated to be attributable to air pollution, considering that health effects exist even at very low levels. This calculation is for deaths from all causes including respiratory, lung cancer and cardiovascular deaths’. The report goes into detail as to how the statistic was calculated and provides a breakdown by borough in the summary tables. The report describes the methodology to estimate the number of attributable deaths in London and confirms that it uses the Office of National Statistics information on the number of deaths in London as the starting point (this is described in section 8.5 of the report and specifically references in footnotes 48 – 51). The method then follows the UK Government’s independent advisory group (COMEAP) recommendations to estimate the proportion and number of deaths that would be attributable to air pollution.
The impact of the ULEZ expansion is detailed in the London-wide ULEZ Integrated Impact Assessment (IIA), this includes information on the forecast number of deaths that would be prevented by London-wide ULEZ (Chapter 6.2):
