TFL Off-peak Only Fares on Fridays – Outcome - Usage Data + Costs
Request ID: FOI-1729-2425 Date published: 18 September 2024
You asked
UK government data shows
1 – Rail use rose on Fridays during the trial, but fell much more on Mon and nearly as much on Wed and Thu.
2 – Overall rail use was 0.3% lower during the trial than before.
3 – Overall rail use was 0.4% higher after the trial than before.
4 – We have no data on seasonal variations – the trial was early spring.
5 – Bus use overall rose 1.2% during the trial, compared to before.
6 – Bus use rose notably less on Fridays during the trial compared to the rise on other days.
7 – Bus use fell after the trial, but less on Fri than other days apart from Thu.
8 – It appears people using rail switched from Mon to Fri during the trial.
9 – Tue usage was atypical – unclear why.
10 – From points 2+3 above, the trial did not lead to any increase in overall rail use, in fact there was a decline in rail travel during the trial.
Here is the data – extracted from government figures.
This shows the average for each 8 days before, 12 days during, and 10 days after the deal.
The figure is relative to the usage five years ago in 2019 before the virus.
Note how TFL rail use remains 20% down on five years ago.
Then TFL bus usage is 14% down on five years ago.
Question - Does TFL agree that this is a big problem for the Mayor and TFL, as it means revenue is much lower, and the stated aim for a big increase in use of public transport is failing badly.
Note how rail usage is consistently higher on TWTh than on MF – the first block of numbers.
Bus usage is very similar on all five days – the second block of numbers.
The last three columns show firstly the rise or fall during the trial compared with before, then the rise or fall after compared with during, and then the rise or fall after compared with before.
The TOTAL row is simply the average over the five days’ numbers above.
RAIL THEN BUS - BH NOT COUNTED
DAY 8 BEFORE 12 DURING 10 AFTER TRIAL CH AFTER TR OVERALL
THU 84.0 83.3 84.2 -0.7 0.9 0.2
TUE 81.5 81.8 82.2 0.3 0.4 0.7
WED 82.1 81.5 82.7 -0.6 1.2 0.6
FRI 76.1 77.0 76.8 0.9 -0.2 0.7
MON 76.0 74.7 75.9 -1.3 1.2 -0.1
TOTAL 79.9 79.7 80.4 -0.3 0.7 0.4
DAY 8 BEFORE 12 DURING 10 AFTER TRIAL CH AFTER TR OVERALL
THU 85.5 88.1 86.5 2.6 -1.6 1.0
TUE 86.9 87.4 86.1 0.5 -1.3 -0.8
WED 87.1 87.6 86.3 0.5 -1.3 -0.8
FRI 86.7 87.0 86.6 0.3 -0.4 -0.1
MON 86.1 88.1 85.1 2.0 -3.0 -1.0
TOTAL 86.5 87.6 86.1 1.2 -1.5 -0.3
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-use-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic
However, this only compares usage to five years ago, before the virus.
It does not show any impacts by time of day, for example any change in numbers travelling before 0930, when peak fares normally apply.
Question - Please provide the data TFL has on the impact of the off-peak only fares on Fridays scheme this year.
Question - Please provide any assessment TFL has made in terms of the benefits the scheme was supposed to achieve, as set out in the Mayor’s press release of 1-3-24, and the costs incurred.
For example:
> an initiative that will be closely watched around the world Khan said:
> “Encouraging more people back into the city on Fridays could give a much-needed boost to the hospitality, business and leisure sectors, supporting London's wider economic growth”
> The Mayor has introduced this trial from next Friday to help TfL and rail operators to better understand if off-peak fares on a Friday could help drive ridership and boost London's wider economic recovery.
Question - What evidence does TFL have that the scheme achieved any meaningful increase in public transport travel in London on Fridays that was not offset by a decrease on other days?
Question - What change in revenue resulted from the scheme – how did the daily revenue take vary by day, weekday and weekend during the first 8 months of 2024?
Question - Were there any cash benefits to TFL that offset the loos of revenue during the cheap fares trial?
Question - Is there any evidence of any increased travel or other change that resulted from the scheme, or that the total output of the London economy increased or fell as a result, and how was this quantified?
https://tfl.gov.uk/info-for/media/press-releases/2024/march/mayor-confirms-landmark-off-peak-fridays-trial-to-start-on-8-march
1-3-24
https://tfl.gov.uk/info-for/media/press-releases/2024/may/londoners-reminded-to-make-the-most-of-discounts-as-friday-off-peak-fares-trial-ends-this-week
29-5-24
We answered
Our Ref: FOI-1729-2425 Thank you for your request received on 1 September 2024 asking for information about the off-peak fares on Fridays trial. Your request has been considered in accordance with the requirements of the Freedom of Information (FOI) Act and our information access policy. I can confirm that we do hold the information you require. The aim of the trial was to better understand whether lower fares could help drive ridership on TfL and other London rail services on Fridays, what impact this might have on travel on other days of the week, and whether this would, in turn, boost London’s wider economic recovery.
The trial has now ended. We will use a combination of public transport ridership data, research into customer perceptions, and feedback from the business community to monitor the impact of the trial and evaluate the cumulative impact. An assessment of the revenue impact of the trial will be part of the post-trial analysis, considering the overall net impact on ridership and revenue to us.
In accordance with the FOI Act, we are not obliged to supply the requested information as it is subject to a statutory exemption to the right of access to information under section 22 of the Act. In this instance the exemption has been applied as the information you have requested is intended for future publication this autumn.
This exemption is subject to a public interest test, which requires us to assess whether the public interest in applying the exemption outweighs the public interest in disclosure. In this instance, it is considered that the public interest favours the publication of this information, in context and according to the pre-determined schedule, rather than in response to your request, to ensure the information is provided accurately and in an accessible manner.
Please see the attached information sheet for details of your right to appeal. Yours sincerely Gemma Jacob Senior FOI Case Officer FOI Case Management Team General Counsel Transport for London
