How many pre 2006 cars are affected within the North Circular Road Boundary to commence Oct 2021? How much do they contribute to poor air quality in terms of total % and grams of unwanted emissions currently? How much will the replacement cars contribute to air quality What actual saving in emissions will this produce in terms of % and grams of emissions? (ie the difference between what the replacement of the pre 2006 petrol cars would produce and the re 2006 cars themselves

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TfL Ref: 1243-1819

Thank you for your request received by Transport for London (TfL) on 3 August 2018 asking for information about air quality.

Your request has been considered in accordance with the requirements of the Environmental Information Regulations and our information access policy. I can confirm we hold some of the information you require. You asked:

How many pre 2006 cars are affected within the North Circular Road Boundary to commence Oct 2021?

We estimate that by 2021, 8 per cent of petrol cars per day driving within the North and South Circular boundary would be pre-2006 vehicles.

The table below indicates the numbers of pre 2006 petrol cars registered in the North and South Circular roads.

Passenger Cars SMMT 2017 data	Postcode within N/S Circular (ULEZ 2021)
Total	889,621
Petrol pre 2006	229,669
Diesel pre 2015	240,519

How much do they contribute to poor air quality in terms of total % and grams of unwanted emissions currently?

We do not hold the data in the form you have requested for the current year. However emissions from non-compliant cars and vans are estimated to make up 22 per cent of the fleet, but around 50 per cent of NO_x emissions from these vehicle types in inner London, and 29 per cent of the fleet, but about 56 per cent of emissions London-wide in 2021.

How much will the replacement cars contribute to air quality

What actual saving in emissions will this produce in terms of % and grams of emissions? (ie the difference between what the replacement of the pre 2006 petrol cars would produce and the re 2006 cars themselves

We have assessed the likely impact on emissions from petrol and diesel vehicles at a population basis. As we anticipate a shift from diesel vehicles to petrol vehicles in response to the scheme we have included the overall emissions savings for context. The figures in the table below show tonnes of NOx emissions savings;

Petrol Cars	2021
Baseline	927
ULEZ Expansion	895
Diff	- 31 tonnes
Diff %	-3.4%
Diesel Cars	2021
Baseline	5,033
ULEZ Expansion	3,989
Diff	- 1,044 tonnes
Diff %	-20.7%
All Cars	2021
Baseline	5,960
ULEZ Expansion	4,884
Diff	- 1,075 tonnes
Diff %	-18.0%

If this is not the information you are looking for, or if you are unable to access it for some reason, please do not hesitate to contact me.

Please see the attached information sheet for details of your right to appeal as well as information on copyright and what to do if you would like to re-use any of the information we have disclosed.

Yours sincerely

Sara Thomas

FOI Case Management Team

General Counsel

Transport for London

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