Request ID: FOI-0879-2223 Date published: 09 August 2022
You asked
Please could you provide a copy of the revenue forecast analysis for the Bakerloo line extension, Elephant and Castle to Lewisham, and separately for the Bakerloo line extension-extension, Lewisham to Hayes/Beckenham Junction.
We answered
TfL Ref: FOI-0879-2223
Thank you for your request received by Transport for London (TfL) on 13 July 2022, asking for information about the revenue forecast for the Bakerloo line extension (BLE).
Your request has been considered in accordance with the requirements of the Freedom of Information Act and our information access policy. I can confirm that we hold the information you require.
Please find the requested information in the attached spreadsheet. It sets out the forecast annual net revenue per year over sixty years for the three different BLE options. This is based on the most recent completed modelling exercise which was done in 2019.
Key points to note:
This is net revenue, not gross. So it is over and above forecast operational and maintenance costs.
All figures are nominal (i.e. the current to the year in which the revenue is received, so it includes forecast inflation to that year).
The modelling on which this was based was done prior to the Covid-19 Pandemic, so it does not reflect any changes from that.
Further modelling and forecasting will be done as the scheme develops and we would expect the revenue forecasts to evolve accordingly.
This assumes an opening year in 2030/31.
If this is not the information you are looking for, or if you are unable to access it for any reason, please do not hesitate to contact me.
Please see the attached information sheet for details of your right to appeal as well as information on copyright and what to do if you would like to re-use any of the information we have disclosed.
Yours sincerely
Eva Hextall FOI Case Management Team General Counsel Transport for London
