Request ID: FOI-0506-2223 Date published: 01 July 2022
You asked
Please provide me with the latest projections Transport for London has either made or commissioned in relation to the expected number of passengers using the Crossrail rail project, prior to the opening of the central section on May 24, 2022.
Please break these figures down so that they include the expected number of passengers using Crossrail on a weekly or monthly basis. Ideally provide the projections as a time series.
If the information is held, please provide these figures broken down by the phased opening of the project - i.e. projections for passenger numbers for when just the central section is open as well as for when the project is fully opened in 2023.
We answered
Our Ref: FOI-0506-2223
Thank you for your request received on 6 June 2022 asking for information about the projected passenger numbers on the Elizabeth Line.
Your request has been considered in accordance with the requirements of the Freedom of Information Act and our information access policy. I can confirm we hold some of the information you require.
Using the pre-pandemic demand growth assumptions, we were expecting the Elizabeth line to be carrying in the region of 250m passengers in 2026 – this is around 4 or 5 years after opening when demand had settled down. Given the range of uncertainty about recovery in demand for rail trips to Heathrow, the West End, the City and Canary Wharf, our current planning scenarios indicate a range of 130m to 170m passengers per annum by 2026. A faster pace of recovery in demand could see this reach 200m.
We do not hold passenger data at the required level of detail that is any more recent than pre-pandemic and therefore are unable to comply with the request. The pre-pandemic numbers are no longer accurate as they are.
If this is not the information you are looking for please feel free to contact me.
Please see the attached information sheet for details of your right to appeal.
Yours sincerely
Gemma Jacob Senior FOI Case Officer FOI Case Management Team General Counsel Transport for London
