Request ID: FOI-0496-2324 Date published: 16 June 2023
You asked
Please could you provide the projected revenue for the planned ULEZ expansion to Greater London. Please also provide all of the the detail as to how this was calculated including the number of non-ULEZ compliant vehicles expected to drive through the zone, from launch to September 2025 (or the latest period that you have calculated figures for) and the projected reduction in the number of non-ULEZ compliant vehicles in Greater London over the period.
We answered
Our Ref: FOI-0496-2324
Thank you for your request received on 19 May 2023 asking for information about projected revenue from the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) expansion.
Your request has been considered in accordance with the requirements of the Freedom of Information (FOI) Act and our information access policy. I can confirm that we do hold the information you require.
The ULEZ is not a money-making scheme, and within a few years, as compliance increases, it will actually make a net loss. A successful expanded ULEZ will lead to cleaner air and at the same time generate ever smaller net revenues, as has been the case with the previous expansion to inner London where people switched to greener vehicles. We are already seeing 90 per cent of cars driven in outer London on an average day complying and compliance levels are increasing all the time. TfL estimates that the London-wide ULEZ could generate up to £200 million a year for the first two years following expansion on 29 August but that this will decline sharply to approximately £50 million in 2025/26. It is a statutory requirement that any net revenue generated by our road charging schemes (the ULEZ, LEZ or the Congestion Charge) is reinvested back into London’s transport network, including investing in improving transport links in outer London. TfL takes into account a number of factors when estimating financial projections pertaining to its Road User Charging Schemes. For the proposed ULEZ expansion TfL would consider, amongst other things, the likely number of unique vehicles we expect to see in the chargeable zone, an estimate of the number of compliant vehicles and any other potential behavioural changes impacting road use. In order to try and reasonably estimate these, TfL utilises input from existing infrastructure and systems that provide insight into volumes as well reviewing historical data relating to past scheme changes. The inherent uncertainty around these assumptions is why TfL has developed a significant range on its revenue projections. In terms of the number of non-compliant vehicles, this estimate was published as part of our consultation and can be found on figure 20 in the following paper: https://haveyoursay.tfl.gov.uk/15619/widgets/44946/documents/27072
If this is not the information you are looking for, or if you are unable to access it for any reason, please do not hesitate to contact me.
Please see the attached information sheet for details of your right to appeal.
Yours sincerely
Gemma Jacob Senior FOI Case Officer FOI Case Management Team General Counsel Transport for London
