Could you please provide an overview of your projections for the demand for tube services on the Wimbledon branch of the district line? Could you also please provide the expected increase in tube service frequency and capacity to cater for the increase? Could you please provide specific details on a) the extent to which new housing developments near tube stations all along the Wimbledon branch of the district line have been incorporated into your demand projections? and b) the proportion and amount of TfL proceeds/cash returns from developments along this branch (e.g. the Earls Court redevelopment plan) have been reinvested into the Wimbledon’s branch tube services vs. being used for other services such as buses etc.?

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TfL Ref: 0230-1819

Thank you for your request received by Transport for London (TfL) on 27 April 2018 asking for information about Tube services on the Wimbledon branch of the district line.

Your request has been considered in accordance with the requirements of the Freedom of Information Act and our information access policy. I can confirm that we hold some of the information you require.  You asked: Wimbledon train frequency: Could you please provide an overview of your projections for the demand for tube services on the Wimbledon branch of the district line? Could you also please provide the expected increase in tube service frequency and capacity to cater for the increase?

Could you please provide specific details on a) the extent to which new housing developments near tube stations all along the Wimbledon branch of the district line have been incorporated into your demand projections? and b) the proportion and amount of TfL proceeds/cash returns from developments along this branch (e.g. the Earls Court redevelopment plan) have been reinvested into the Wimbledon’s branch tube services vs. being used for other services such as buses etc.?

Our demand projections are based on a series of assumptions including population projections. Population projections are determined by the Greater London Authority and are informed by housing land availability amongst other assumptions. The latest detailed projections of demand for the Wimbledon Branch of the District Line has been carried out using the GLA projections released in July 2016 which project London’s population to be 10.5m in 2041.

We have considered population change within a geographic area approx. 1.5km*  of the District Line from Wimbledon to Earls Court. Population is projected to increase from 209,000 in 2015 to 247,000 in 2041. This is an increase of almost 40,000 and 19%.

Please note that following the publication of the new London Plan revised population assumptions have been produced which show a population of 10.8m for London in 2041. These have not yet been used in detailed projections of demand for the District Line but this will be updated in due course.

*The area of interest was determined by identifying relevant zones within the London Transportation Studies (LTS) strategic transport demand model. The table below shows the calculation:

Zone	Estimated population in 2015	Projected population in 2041	Change
Totals	208600	247400	38800

Also attached is line level forecast for the District line.

The Programmes and Investment Committee paper of 13 October 2017 found here http://content.tfl.gov.uk/pic-20171013-agenda-item07.pdf contains the following table to which we have added an extra two columns to show the impact on the Wimbledon branch.

Description	Planned Timetable Date	Wimbledon Branch peak hour frequency	Peak Hour Capacity
Today's Service	Present	15 tph	13,380
Runtime improvements on central area sections	May 2021	15 tph	13,380
30tph in central area for 90 minute peaks	December 2021	15 tph	13,380
32tph in central area for 90 minute peaks	May 2022	16 tph	14,272
32tph in central area for three hour peaks	December 2022	16 tph	14,272
32tph in central area and 28tph on Metropolitan trunk for three hour peaks	May 2023	16 tph	14,272
Off-peak enhancements	December 2023	16 tph	14,272

The planning capacity of an S7 train as used on the District Line is 892 passengers.

Further the Deep tube programme paper http://content.tfl.gov.uk/pic-20180516-item08-deep-tube-update.pdf states:-

“The Mayor’s Transport Strategy also includes proposals to optimise London Underground services in West London. This strategy assumes that on delivery of the Deep Tube Upgrade Programme Piccadilly line upgrade, Ealing Broadway will be served by Piccadilly line trains. This will

enable increased capacity of at least 25 per cent to be introduced on the busier Richmond and Wimbledon branches of the District line.”

We do not hold any information on how any income generated from this development will be allocated in future as all revenue is put into a central budget and allocated accordingly, and is not ring fenced for any transport improvements in the same area in which it is generated.

If this is not the information you are looking for, or if you are unable to access it for any reason, please do not hesitate to contact me.

Please see the attached information sheet for details of your right to appeal as well as information on copyright and what to do if you would like to re-use any of the information we have disclosed.

Yours sincerely

Sara Thomas

FOI Case Management Team

General Counsel

Transport for London

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