Request ID: FOI-0169-2324 Date published: 16 May 2023
You asked
On 10 March 2023, Evening Standard Online ran a story about High Speed Two and Crossrail, titled
"Elizabeth line will be as crowded as Tube with new HS2 Euston delay, warns Sadiq Khan
Mayor says retaining Old Oak Common as HS2’s southern terminus until Euston’s now-likely opening date of around 2040 ‘not a viable option’"
Elizabeth line will be as crowded as Tube with new HS2 Euston delay, warns Sadiq Khan | Evening Standard
The story made reference to a letter sent by Mayor of London Sadiq Khan to the Secretary of State for Transport Mark Harper.
'But Mr Khan, in a letter to Mr Harper, warned that by 2030 the eastbound sections of the Elizabeth line from Reading and Heathrow to Paddington would be “nearing capacity” and HS2 passengers would be boarding “already busy trains”.
Mr Khan said: “This means passengers boarding at Old Oak Common could wait for more than 10 minutes during the peak periods and there may be a need for station control where customers are held at different parts of the station to avoid congestion on stairs, escalators and platforms. “
The levels of crowding on the trains would be comparable to Tube journeys in central London and would be at odds with customer expectations of the new HS2 services.”
He said Elizabeth line frequencies at Old Oak Common would have to be increased from 12 trains an hour to 20 and possibly 24 to cope with passenger numbers – meaning four more trains would have to be bought.'
I would like to request
(1.) the evidence base used for the crowding and train fleet claims referred to in the story.
I would also like to establish
(2.) what the expected whole-Crossrail service pattern is, for when HS2 starts operating from Old Oak Common
(3.) what is the expected maximum hourly number of passengers using Crossrail between Paddington and Old Oak Common (i.e. westbound) when HS2 starts operating from there
(4.) what is the expected maximum hourly number of passengers using Crossrail between Old Oak Common and Paddington (i.e. eastbound) when HS2 starts operating from Old Oak
(5.) what is the expected Crossrail journey time (minutes) between (a) Old Oak Common and Paddington stations, and (b) between Old Oak Common and Acton Main Line stations
(6.) what information is held by TfL regarding the expected ultimate destinations (e.g., distribution of endpoints by London borough).of people travelling to London on HS2
(i) with the service terminating at Old Oak Common (i.e., one London HS2 station in operation)
(ii) with the service terminating at Euston (i.e., two London HS2 stations in operation).
We answered
Our Ref: FOI-0169-2324
Thank you for your request received on 14 April 2023 asking for information about TfL’s planning for HS2. Your request has been considered in accordance with the requirements of the Freedom of Information Act and our information access policy. I can confirm that we do hold the information you require. You asked for: 1. The evidence base used for the crowding and train fleet claims referred to in the story. The evidence base for the anticipated crowding levels is a modelled output from the Railplan model. More information about the Railplan tool can be found on our website: https://content.tfl.gov.uk/londons-strategic-transport-models.pdf. For the train fleet claims, the evidence is indicative timetable modelling to identify the number of trains required to operate the service levels. 2. What the expected whole-Crossrail service pattern is, for when HS2 starts operating from Old Oak Common We continue to review the timetable and performance modelling to identify an optimal service level up to 24 trains per hour in the peak for Elizabeth line services between Paddington and Old Oak Common. 3. What is the expected maximum hourly number of passengers using Crossrail between Paddington and Old Oak Common (i.e. westbound) when HS2 starts operating from there The number of passengers using the Elizabeth line between Paddington and Old Oak Common is during the PM peak period between 16:00 and 18:59 (hourly data is not held). When HS2 starts operating (at 3 trains per hour (tph) to Old Oak Common as a terminus) we expect 48,985 passengers (with Elizabeth line services at 24 trains per hour) during this period.
4. What is the expected maximum hourly number of passengers using Cossrail between Old Oak Common and Paddington (i.e. eastbound) when HS2 starts operating from Old Oak The maximum number of passengers using Elizabeth line between Old Oak Common and Paddington is during the AM peak period between 07:00 and 09:59 (hourly data is not held) When HS2 starts operating (at 3 tph to Old Oak Common as a terminus) we expect 52,858 passengers (with Elizabeth line services at 24 trains per hour) during this period.
5. What is the expected Crossrail journey time (minutes) between (a) Old Oak Common and Paddington stations, and (b) between Old Oak Common and Acton Main Line stations The average journey time between Old Oak Common and Paddington via the Elizabeth line is expected to be 7 minutes, and 3 minutes between Old Oak Common and Acton Main line is timetabled point to point time and does not include any allowance for wait time to board a service nor dwell time at the stations. The exact timetabled times will be subject to further development and timetabling work by Network Rail. 6. What information is held by TfL regarding the expected ultimate destinations (e.g., distribution of endpoints by London borough).of people travelling to London on HS2 (i) with the service terminating at Old Oak Common (i.e., one London HS2 station in operation) (ii) with the service terminating at Euston (i.e., two London HS2 stations in operation). TfL holds information on the ultimate destination of passengers travelling to London on HS2 in the Railplan model zone format. Railplan has a zone structure containing 4,813 zones covering the entire country and this data can be aggregated into forms such as London Boroughs or any other desirable format e.g. counties or government regions. Data is available for the AM peak period (07:00 to 09:59), inter peak period (10:00 to 15:59) and PM peak period (16:00 to 18:59) for 2031 and 2041 forecast years. Scenarios are available for the following: • 3 tph HS2 to Old Oak Common as a temporary terminus • 6 tph HS2 to Old Oak Common as a temporary terminus • 10 tph full HS2 with services through to Euston If this is not the information you are looking for, or if you are unable to access it for any reason, please do not hesitate to contact me. Please see the attached information sheet for details of your right to appeal.
Yours sincerely
Gemma Jacob Senior FOI Case Officer FOI Case Management Team General Counsel Transport for London
