Request ID: FOI-3011-2223 Date published: 08 March 2023
You asked
Please supply the relevant data and correspondence that underpinned your published TFL policy conclusions within the 2021 London Rail Freight Strategy regarding current and projected Stratford to Canonbury TFL passenger numbers and the desirability of a Camden Road Station Platform 3 project.
Please also supply any further material on those subjects produced since the publication of that strategy.
We answered
TfL Ref: FOI-3011-2223
Thank you for your request which we received on 14 February 2023, asking for information about the current and projected passenger numbers between Stratford and Canonbury.
Your request has been considered in accordance with the requirements of the Freedom of Information Act and our information access policy. I can confirm that we hold the information you require. You asked:
Please supply the relevant data and correspondence that underpinned your published TFL policy conclusions within the 2021 London Rail Freight Strategy regarding current and projected Stratford to Canonbury TFL passenger numbers and the desirability of a Camden Road Station Platform 3 project.
Please also supply any further material on those subjects produced since the publication of that strategy.
The data source that we used for our judgement in this area was the London Overground Upgrade Plan which is attached. Please refer to the file “161006 Overground 2041 v2.2 as.pdf”. The modelling undertaken for this identified a need for additional capacity between these locations; refer to slides 33 and 34. These show the crowding levels (current and forecast) on all interstation links served by the North and West London Line between Stratford and Richmond / Clapham Junction from the years 2015 through to 2030 during the AM peak hour, expressed in terms of passengers per metre squared of standing space on each train operating. It can be observed that crowding levels are forecast to exceed four passengers per metre squared of standing space on the section from Stratford to Canonbury by 2023. This is the level of crowding at which we deem intervention to be necessary in terms of provision of additional capacity and / or services as it represents the point at which passengers find it increasingly hard to board and alight to/from services, leading to delays at stations and worsening performance. This analysis was subsequently refreshed to take account of some minor changes to future year forecast, as shown in the attached file “201008 nll wll comparison to last Upgrade Plan”.This demonstrated that capacity was forecast to exceed four passengers per metre squared of standing space on the link from Canonbury to Highbury & Islington by 2027.
All this analysis was undertaken prior to the Covid-19 pandemic. We had planned to refresh the London Overground Upgrade Plan in 2020 but that work was never taken forward as other short term matters had to take priority. Nonetheless we still consider the findings to be reasonable given the level of development at the eastern end of the route concerned, particularly around Stratford in the Olympic Park which we anticipate will lead to growing demand on the London Overground services operating on this route. This will potentially require the provision of a third platform at Camden Road to enable the additional services to reverse there. The opportunity to provide this facility should not be lost to avoid constraining future opportunities for service enhancements. We regard the provision of additional services as far as Camden Road to be optimal in view of the wide range of housing and other facilities within the station catchment which make it a key travel objective. The Upgrade Plan analysis shows high levels of crowding above three passenger per metre squared of standing space extending as far as Camden Road, demonstrating this point.
Please find the attached emails that were exchanged at the time in relation to the development of the 2021 London Rail Freight Strategy.
Please note that in accordance with TfL’s obligations under Data Protection legislation some personal data has been removed, as required by section 40(2) of the FOI Act. This is because disclosure of this personal data would be a breach of the legislation, specifically the first principle which requires all processing of personal data to be fair and lawful. It would not be fair to disclose this personal information when the individuals have no expectation it would be disclosed and TfL has not satisfied one of the conditions which would make the processing ‘fair’.
This exemption to the right of access to information is an absolute exemption and not subject to an assessment of whether the public interest favours use of the exemption.
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Yours sincerely
Eva Hextall FOI Case Management Team General Counsel Transport for London
