Our Ref:         FOI-1027-1718
 
Thank you for your request received on 31 July 2017 asking for information about Crossrail2 assessments.
 
Your request has been considered in accordance with the requirements of the Freedom of Information Act and our information access policy. I can confirm we do hold the information you require. You asked:
 
Following the Department for Transport's latest rail crowding figures published on the 27th July 2017, what assessments has TfL made of future crowding on the South West Main Line into Waterloo, and what is the projected difference that Crossrail 2 would make to those figures?
 
An updated Strategic Outline Business Case (SOBC) for Crossrail 2 was submitted to the Department for Transport in March 2017.
 
As part of the work to produce the SOBC, TfL and Network Rail identified the South West Main Line (SWML) to be the most critical corridor on the National Rail network. Despite committed and planned investment, the largest gap between demand and capacity, and hence the highest levels of crowding, for ‘Outer’ and Suburban services into London in the 2030s are forecast to occur on the SWML.
 
By 2031, joint TfL and Network Rail analysis predicted peak hour standing densities on suburban services will reach 5.4 passengers per m². This is significantly higher than today and higher than many of the busiest sections of the London Underground network. National Rail service frequency and rolling stock layout is not suited to accommodating these levels of crowding, and by 2041, levels of crowding on suburban services will reach operationally difficult levels. By 2031, standing levels on SWML outer services are projected to rise to levels not seen on any main line National Rail services on the network today, with between 25 to 35 per cent of passengers standing in the peak hour.
 
At Waterloo, it is forecast there will be a 65 per cent growth in demand on SWML services into the station between 2011 and 2031, and 79 per cent growth between 2011 and 2041. Given the majority of passengers arriving at Waterloo interchange onto the Tube, this level of growth in demand will require regular gateline closures at Waterloo London Underground station to deal with significant levels of crowding.   
 
Crossrail 2 would relieve congestion on the SWML by providing extra tracks for suburban services to run on, inbound of the New Malden Junction. It will add an extra track in each direction alongside the existing railway between that junction and Wimbledon, and an extra track in each direction in tunnel, north of Wimbledon.
 
Crossrail 2 will enable a capacity increase across SWML outer and SWML suburban services of around 60 per cent compared to the future year reference case.
 
It will do this by creating space for around seven extra outer trains (to and from a range of locations south and west of Woking), and around 12 extra suburban trains (across four different suburban branches – Epsom, Chessington South, Hampton Court, and Shepperton), in the peak direction in the high peak hour. Ten additional Crossrail 2 trains are also planned to start at Wimbledon. This would increase the number of high peak hour seats on services in the SWML corridor into London from around 25,000, to 40,000.
 
We expect Crossrail 2 to reduce the number of standing passengers on SWML suburban services by 44 per cent compared to today, and virtually eliminate passengers in excess of capacity through the 2030s and significantly below today’s levels into the 2040s.
 
We also expect Crossrail 2 to eliminate the need for planned station control measures at Waterloo Underground station in the 2030s and 2040s, as well as providing significant crowding and congestion relief to Clapham Junction, Vauxhall and Wimbledon stations, all of which are forecast to be critically over-crowded by the 2030s.
 
If this is not the information you are looking for please feel free to contact me.
 
Please see the attached information sheet for details of your right to appeal.
 
Yours sincerely
 
Gemma Jacob
FOI Case Officer
FOI Case Management Team
General Counsel
Transport for London
 
[email protected]