FOI request detail

ULEZ expansion modelling specifically for Newham, Greenwich

Request ID: FOI-0937-2122
Date published: 06 September 2021

You asked

I would like information on what TFL have projected so far on ULEZ expansion later in Oct-2021 primarily for Newham, Greenwich: 1) How many vehicles will be subject to ULEZ based on records so far broken down by vehicle type so cars & HGVs? 2) Projected vehicles of above which are likely to pay ULEZ and continue operating again by vehicle type so cars vs HGVs 3) Projections above however, looking forward so once Silvertown Tunnel is complete & in operations in terms of how many vehicles will be ULEZ fee paying broken down by cars vs HGVs. This is to help understand how many vehicles will be subject to Silvertown Tunnel tolls and revenue from those to help validate how much tax payer's money is on the line to ultimately fund Silvertown Tunnel in the next decade or so I trust and would expect above information to be available readily as part of: A) ULEZ expansion study & claims made by both TFL & Mayor's office that ULEZ will reduce traffic and help "clean air" and B) Silvertown Tunnel projections on traffic which will pass through as there have been claims made by TFL & Mayor's office that there will be no overall increase in HGVs or new traffic but simply existing Blackwall Tunnel traffic rerouted to an extent to reduce overall "traffic congestions"

We answered

Our ref: FOI-0937-2122/GH
Thank you for your request received by Transport for London (TfL) on 9 August 2021 asking for information about ULEZ expansion modelling.
Your request has been considered under the requirements of the Environmental Information Regulations and our information access policy. I can confirm that we do hold some of the information you require.
We do not have a breakdown of the information requested for Newham and Greenwich.
We estimate that, in 2021, on an average day in the expanded zone, there would be approximately 100,000 cars and 35,000 vans that do not meet the emissions standards required to enter the expanded Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ). Heavy goods vehicles are subject to the Londonwide Low Emission Zone.
The daily charge for the ULEZ strongly incentivises the most frequent and biggest polluters to change their vehicle or behaviour while allowing for non-compliant vehicles that are only used occasionally and contribute little to overall pollution to still be used. In practice, compliance is very high at already over 80 per cent of cars seen in the expanded zone, and, as we have seen in the central London ULEZ, continues to grow over time.
There is detailed information on the expected numbers of drivers who would continue to drive in the zone and pay the daily charge after the ULEZ is expanded in the Supplementary Information document prepared to support consultation on ULEZ expansion. This document is available at
Any net income from the Congestion Charge, ULEZ and Low Emission Zone is spent on improving transport in London, including roads, Cycleways, buses and the Tube, and making London’s air cleaner, in line with the Mayor’s Transport Strategy. Transport for London publishes details of income from all road user charging schemes in its Annual Report and Statement of Accounts, which is available on the TfL website at:
We publish quarterly factsheets which include information about how many people pay the ULEZ charge, the compliance rates for vehicles using the zone and the number of Penalty Charge Notices that are issued. Information on the expanded zone will be included from November 2021. The ULEZ factsheets are available at
The new Silvertown Tunnel will be implemented with user charging at the Silvertown and Blackwall Tunnels, and a new, reliable and frequent cross river bus services - an increase from six buses per hour today to at least 20 buses per hour from opening. This means that the many journeys through the Blackwall Tunnel will see congestion effectively eliminated and reliability greatly improved. For many people who currently drive through the Blackwall Tunnel, this will also challenge them to travel at quieter times, in cleaner vehicles, or to switch to public transport to cross the river.
Providing sustainable transport options to help people travel in less polluting ways is a key part of the Mayor’s programme to improve London’s air quality. The combination of new public transport options, and a charging scheme to discourage driving through the tunnels means that we expect local air pollution to improve as a result and the Mayor has accepted legally binding provisions in the planning permission to control any pollution that may arise.
We are committed to delivering on these promises and have commenced a comprehensive programme of further monitoring, modelling and assessment work to review the impacts of the Silvertown Tunnel scheme on traffic, air quality and other matters. This work is ongoing in the run up to tunnel opening, currently planned for 2025, and updates and information is regular published on our website as part of our work with the Silvertown Tunnel Implementation Group:
This work will provide information on how many vehicles will be subject to the user charges proposed for the Silvertown and Blackwall Tunnel, but this information is not available as part of the current ULEZ projections. The Silvertown Tunnel will be inside the expanded ULEZ and so we expect the vast majority of the remaining vehicles passing through the tunnel to be compliant, further reducing emissions on local roads. Already, 94 per cent of heavy vehicles operating in London and 80 per cent of cars seen driving in the expanded ULEZ area are compliant with the emission standards.
Previous forecasts of traffic in relation to the Silvertown Tunnel scheme and its environmental impacts are set out in the documents submitted as part of the Development Consent Order process, notably the Transport Assessment and Environmental Statement, available on the planning inspectorate website here:
If this is not the information you are looking for, or if you are unable to access it for some reason, please do not hesitate to contact me.
If you are not satisfied with this response please see the attached information sheet for details of your right to appeal.
Yours sincerely
Graham Hurt
FOI Case Officer
FOI Case Management Team
General Counsel
Transport for London

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